منابع مشابه
Combining Probability Forecasts
Linear pooling is by the far the most popular method for combining probability forecasts. However, any nontrivial weighted average of two or more distinct, calibrated probability forecasts is necessarily uncalibrated and lacks sharpness. In view of this, linear pooling requires recalibration, even in the ideal case in which the individual forecasts are calibrated. Toward this end, we propose a ...
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The meaning of probabilistic weather forecasts is discussed from the point of view of a subjectivist concept of probability. The prior degree of belief of probabilities of the weather in question, for a given forecast statement, is expressed analytically as a beta function. Bzyes’ theorem is used to modify this degree of belief in the light of experience, producing a posterior degree of belief ...
متن کاملForecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts
We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in ter...
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Abstract: Using evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology and psychology, we examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current and each of the next four quarters using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We study the quality of these probability forecasts in terms of calibration, resolution, the relative operating characteristic (RO...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Space Weather
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1542-7390
DOI: 10.1002/2015sw001222